it's a nonprofit group devoted to transparency in government. he explains that the state's two largest pensions have enjoyed relative success in the long run hitting their investment marks over 20 years but not recently. >> it's a matter of perspective. they would argue that historically their assumptions are well grounded. the question is, of course, going forward can we rely on history to predict the future. >> recent history has been staggered at best. here's a look at calpers performance, down 27. in 2008. up 12.1% in 2009. up 12.6% in 2010. then up 1.1% in 2011. here's where the math part of this comes in handy. trust me. i'm no mathematician. if your rate of return goes down, unfunded liability gets larger. for example, if you have the rate of return on these pension funds at 7.5% right now it's estimated unfunded liability is $162 billion approximately. now let's say you go for more conservative estimate. it would then grow to $500 billion. >> if your actual returns are less than expected rate, it dramatically increases your liability. >>